Beyond its economic impact, an exit of Greece from the Eurozone, a so called “Grexit” or a “Graccident” would mark a historic weakening of the European Union,according to experts, is opening a period of major geopolitical uncertainty while the migrants flow on the south EUropean side-the Mediterranean sea-.
Greece’s potential exit from the eurozone is triggering fears that the country’s troubles could spill into Europe’s turbulent military and security landscape, causing waves from the Balkans to Turkey.
— EUobserver (@euobs) 8 Juillet 2015
As with the potential British exit from the EU, the mere possibility of a Greek eurozone departure will have big geopolitical consequences. Until now, European integration and the Atlantic alliance have been premised on irreversibility. If that premise is proved false, then Europe’s whole post–Cold War order will be threatened, with Moscow’s risk taking likely to increase. The EU was built to ensure peace and prosperity; both now hang in the balance.
The Geopolitical player called Greece
Greece, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, isn’t a major power. But it is centrally positioned in many of the geopolitical disputes embroiling Europe, including relations with Russia and a migration flood from the Middle East and North Africa, and has its own historic, albeit dormant tensions with Turkey. The departure of Greece can be seen only as a translation of a Europe becoming more weaker, that Europe is more vulnerable “, analyzes a professor in the King College in London. ” We enter the absolute unknown. In this unknown, there are moderate scenarios as well some nightmare scenarios and we cannot exclude the latter “. My point of view is that i don’t think Greece is destroying Europe. But the Greek saga does serve as a test for the Europeans which didn’t take seriously yet the results of the world war 2. Many European leaders are aware that the crisis has the potential to wreck Europe. Although several of them—not least the German chancellor—are under pressure to let Greece leave the eurozone, I believe they won’t let it happen, at least not from one day to another. The contagion effect and geopolitical fallout of a Greek exit would be severe and would undermine the EU itself. One question is whether Greece would remain in the EU if it abandons the euro. EU treaties suggest it might have to exit if Greece returns to its own currency, but some legal experts believe technocrats could be found allowing it to remain. And few believe Greece’s difficulties would force the country out of NATO, which is entirely separate.
What is being witnessed in Greece is a clash between globalization and democracy
Through the experts’ eyes, one of the first dangers would be the abandon by a bankrupt State of any control of migrants’ influx, in origin in particular from the Middle East where wars are ongoing, which Greece, in the front line in the South with Italy and Spain, already has a lot of difficulties to manage.
Greece is also a major point of entry for the growing number of migrants heading to Europe from the Middle East and Africa -- 68,000 in the first six months of 2015 alone, according to the UN, or more than any other EU country. Source: www.businessspectator.com.au
The Impact of a Grexit
According to Dr Thanos Dokos Director general of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy a Grexit would have profound (although not equally distributed) geopolitical consequences for all sides involved. Even if Greece were to leave the eurozone but remain in the EU, the country’s contribution to various common endeavors would be quite limited, at best.
- First, Greece has one of the EU’s most sensitive external borders in the context of immigration. Effective border management would be beyond the capabilities of a bankrupt country.
- Second, a healthy Greece, either as a party to a dispute or as a balancing actor between Albanian and Slavic populations in the Western Balkans, can play an important stabilizing role in the region.
Is Europe also in for a geopolitical disaster, with stability under threat along a vast arc from the Eastern Mediterranean to the former Yugoslav republics? I doubt it. Yes, the economies of Greece’s neighbors would suffer lower exports and a decrease in remittances, and Greek-owned banks in Bulgaria, Albania, and Serbia would struggle too. However, let’s not forget that these are local entities subject to national regulations and safety nets. For all the pain, the drachma’s comeback might, in time, facilitate adjustment and reinstate Greece as a motor of regional growth. Source: Carnegie Europe
- Third, further reduction of defense expenditures and military capabilities would negatively affect Greece’s participation in NATO and EU missions.
- Fourth, Greece’s privileged relationship—of varying degrees—with Israel, the Arab world, Iran, Russia, and China could allow it to play the role of an additional Western bridge in turbulent regions.And finally, an ostracized Greece would be vulnerable to non-Western great-power penetration.
So a new Greece could certainly be a valuable partner for the EU, as well as for the United States and NATO, in regions of critical importance for European and transatlantic security and interests. Greek political leaders should step up to the challenge and take advantage of the country’s opportunities. At the same time, insecurity in Greece, paired with insecurity in neighboring Turkey — another NATO member whose neighbors include war-torn Syria and Iraq — could stoke nationalist sentiments and reignite historic enmities between the two, said Jonathan Eyal, international director at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. Greece lifted its economic and financial decisionmaking to an international level: the markets, Brussels, and the International Monetary Fund co-decide aspects of Greek economic policy. No one forced Greece into this; its parliament voted for eurozone membership. For years, this arrangement benefited Greece. Now, the Greek economy has collapsed, revealing deep flaws in both domestic and eurozone governance. Greece and its creditors have to work out a new balance, otherwise the country will be shut out of international trade and finance. Then similar debates in Spain and other countries could get out of hand, too.
The new role of Russia regarding Greek crisis.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has visited Russia twice in recent months and criticized the Western sanctions. Many Greeks feel a spiritual bond with Russia through their shared Eastern Orthodox religion.
On mid-June,Russian President Vladimir Putin said after talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that a prospective Russian natural gas pipeline (known as Turkish stream) should help Greece service its debt, but the Kremlin said the question of direct Russian financial aid to Greece was not discussed.
But in a speech Wednesday to the European Parliament, Mr Tsipras said Greece wants to remain part of Europe.
GREECE AND RUSSIA SIGN DEAL OF 2 BILLION$ ON TURKISH STREAM WHILE THE GREEK DEBT CRISIS ALERT IS ON RED ALERT
The Greek debt Chronicle on Eyes on Eu and the Middle East
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- The Euro Intercepts : WikiLeaks
- Absolutely everything you need to know about Greece’s bailout crisis
Obama Administration Deems Grexit ‘Geopolitical Mistake’ http://t.co/tw7XSjbEZy
— Novinite.com (@novinite_com) 9 Juillet 2015
* Sources from levif.be, Twitter, Reuters, Guardian.com