Good afternoon, and welcome to a brave new post EU-free world!
And yet, Britain is now in the process of leaving the European Union and to trigger the article 50 of the EU constitution, if a deal is not made otherwise, its trade agreements. Nonetheless, this is the decision of the British people democratically taken ! This result comes out of Thursday night’s Brexit referendum, where the British voters decided s to leave the European Union. It took the country by surprise; about 70 percent of voters, and 54 percent of pro-Brexit voters, expected the referendum to fail.
Europe for 2 days was waiting for the rare appearences in public of Boris and Farage. Does anyone have seen them?
Meanwhile, the value of the pound has dropped through the floor. Sinn Fein are calling for a united Ireland. Prime minister David Cameron has resigned. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has said that Scotland is looking at a new independence referendum. The Labour party has tabled a motion to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn, racists and neo-fascists have been encouraged all over Europe, and the rest of the EU looks about to disintegrate. But most of all, the United Kingdom is a very particular country which might loss its political stability and sovereignty after the Brexit vote as we know it today.
Europhobia was a terrific cause, so long as it remained just that: a one-size-fits-all scapegoat for everything that went wrong, a way to bond people together, giving them a warm feeling of collective injustice, and a means of getting at the toffs and ‘experts’ at the top – without any danger that their wild alternative might be tested. Now it is about to be. And it has come to look far more complicated and difficult than they had assumed – or had fooled their followers that it would be.
For decades, Brussels and the EU has served as a convenient scapegoat for national leaders looking to dodge blame for unpopular policies.In one disturbing effect of that nasty, xenophobic campaign, there were reports of racist incidents directed against Poles. Some allegedly consisted of bits of paper reading “no more Polish vermin” being put into letterboxes.
Fake promises numbered one by one:
1. Uk is not going to see a fall in immigration levels
No one in the Leave campaign actually gave any target figures, at any time, ever. Conservative MEP Dan Hannan has already said just after the vote that people expecting immigration to come down will be “disappointed”.
Senior MEP Daniel Hannan insisted that ditching Brussels would not stop the amount of people coming to Britain being slashed.The Conservative, who campaigned for Vote Leave ahead of the referendum, even claimed the group had only promised “control” and not a specific number.
Why not import cheap labour from third countries? That could reduce also the wages for the Uk workers and capitalism would be a winner, again! Sounds amazing for the poor!
The facts say immigration helps Britain. But facts don’t vote — people do. https://t.co/o1uLdVQqxC
— The New York Times (@nytimes) 27 juin 2016
Brexit campaigner says idea immigration will fall after referendum result a ‘misunderstanding’ https://t.co/GVHFAXE0IA
— The Independent (@Independent) 27 juin 2016
2. Britain & North Ireland not going to have an extra £350 million a week for the NHS
Nigel Farage has already told reporters that the Leave campaign shouldn’t have claimed that. Nigel Farage has disowned a pledge to spend £350 million of European Union cash on the NHS after Brexit.
The Ukip leader was asked on ITV’s Good Morning Britain programme whether he would guarantee that the money pledged for the health service during the campaign would now be spent on it.
— Rob Windscheffel (@RWindscheffel) 24 juin 2016
Nigel Farage: “Nobody said that we’d spend the £350million a week on the NHS” pic.twitter.com/wwohTlWQuU
— Mike Sanz (@mikesanz19) 24 juin 2016
3. United Kingdom might not be able to stay in the single market, Uk is not Norway. I explain.
No other country has a set up like that: both France and Germany have made it abundantly clear that the Uk is not going to be able to have their the single market share and take advantage of the free-trade zone without contributing a single penny to it, as Leave says they will.
- Some economists have already suggested that one of the options Britain could follow in the wake of a Brexit vote is the Norway model. Could that be possible?
Norway, along with Liechtenstein and Iceland are members of the European Economic Area (EEA). They have access to the single market while staying out of the EU. They also make contributions to the EU budget. There is separate secretariat in Brussels to manage the relationship between the EU and EEA countries. Nonetheless, United Kingdom is not even a member of the Schengen Area.
If Britain chooses to leave the EU but join the EEA, it will be a half-in-and-half-out arrangement, and the long-term impact on either side will be minimal. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble had said during the campaign that Britain won’t get access to the single market if it decides to leave. However, once actual talks begin, grounds for compromise could emerge.
Speaking to Politico, the Norwegian Prime Minister , Ms Erna Solberg ,said that her country acts like a “lobbying organisation” in Brussels. Asked about Leave campaigners in Britain wishing to imitate Norway’s model, she replied: “They won’t like”.
Ms Solberg added: “That type of connection is going to be difficult for Britain, because then Brussels will decide without the Brits being able to participate in the decision-making.”
For years, Ukip populists said Norway was the model. ‘The people of Norway, Switzerland and Iceland are happy,’ explained Nigel Farage of the populist UK Independence Party in 2015. ‘Those countries have their own deals, to maintain the type of trading relationship they want.’
However, now Ukip leader Mr Farage said last week: I don’t want a Norwegian deal – I believe in a new British deal that suits the needs of our own country.” Fair enough, but does the #Eu wants to apply such a model tailor-made taking into consideration only “Mr Farage and friends needs” and not the #Eu one’s?
Any signs of delay from the EU could be exploited or interpreted by Euroskeptic movements across Europe as an indication that EU leaders are prepared to make more concessions to Britain.
4. Uk is not going to get its sovereignty back, at least not for now.
Looks like Uk is about to get a new prime minister by the end of the autumn Conservative party conference. It’ll be a short list of two people, nominated by MPs.
This unelected leader could then theoretically hold office unopposed until a general election has to be called in three year’s time.
The Spanish government has called for joint sovereignty over Gibraltar in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
For North Ireland, recent estimates put the cost of Brexit to the Northern economy at €1 billion per annum and the cost to the Southern economy at €3 billion per annum.In the event of a Brexit, the agricultural sector in the North stands to lose €326 million in direct agricultural support payments per year. (source: Irish Times)
Brexit is likely to lead to the reintroduction of Border controls, limiting freedom of movement, harming trade and adversely affecting cross-Border communities and workers, creating barriers to education, health and welfare. A British exit from Europe would be bad for the development of all-Ireland integration and for communities in the Border region. Martin McGuiness, of Sinn Fein party , has already called for a border poll on a united Ireland
Over the weekend, the leader of Scotland’s semiautonomous government, Nicola Sturgeon, said a second independence referendum was “very much on the table.” Work would begin to ensure the necessary legislation is in place for that vote, she said. Meanwhile, Cyprus Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides said on Saturday that Cyprus wants the status of EU citizens to continue to apply and be recognised within the Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs) on the island.
5. United Kingdom might not remain a world leader in research and development
UK investment in science and universities has dried up since the recession, whereas the EU gave us £7bn in science funding alone between 2007 – 2013.
United Kingdom is also going to face new barriers to collaboration with European universities and research centres.
6. Uk probably is not going to save £2bn on energy bills
Writing in the Sun, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and the Labour MP Gisela Stuart argue that “fuel bills will be lower for everyone” if Britain votes to leave the EU on 23 June.
Leave promised we could end VAT on household energy bills. While that’s possible, it won’t save any money in reality because the Uk rely on imports for so much of our energy. Maybe it’s time for investment into renewable sources? But where you’ll get the money as they pound devaluates now… Crude oil is priced in dollars, and once that figure is converted into today’s lower sterling rate, the price is likely to increase, that means more expensive fuels for Britons.
Because the pound has fallen, inflation will go up, which means imports and thus the domestic energy bills will cost up to 12 per cent more than they currently do.
7. There’s not going to be a ‘greater’ Britain…. at least not so soon !
Overnight the UK economy has already slumped from the fifth largest in the world to sixth according to the Independent online.
More than £200 billion has already been wiped from the value of the UK stock market, only in one day- or put another way, 24 years’ worth of UK contributions to the EU.